Bird Flu and Egg Prices: What Happens When Avian Influenza Hits

If you buy eggs for a living, there is one phrase that should always be on your radar: highly pathogenic avian influenza, or HPAI. It is the single biggest disruptor in the egg industry, and when it hits, it moves fast. Prices spike. Supply tightens. And buyers who were not prepared find themselves scrambling for product that suddenly is not there.

We have been through every major HPAI outbreak in recent history. Here is what actually happens when bird flu hits the egg supply, what it means for pricing, and what you can do right now to protect your business.

What HPAI Does to the Egg Supply

When highly pathogenic avian influenza is detected at a laying facility, the response is immediate and severe. The entire flock is culled. We are talking millions of birds in a single outbreak. The USDA requires it, and there is no halfway measure. Once a flock is depopulated, the facility has to be cleaned, disinfected, and then restocked with new pullets that need months to mature before they start laying.

The 2022 outbreak wiped out roughly 58 million birds in the U.S. The 2015 outbreak took nearly 50 million. Each time, it took the industry 12 to 18 months to fully recover. That is not a blip. That is a structural hole in the national egg supply that takes a long time to fill.

How Fast Prices Move

When HPAI hits a major producing region, prices do not creep up over weeks. They jump in days. The Urner Barry benchmark, which sets the wholesale price for most of the industry, can move 30 to 50 percent in a single week during a major outbreak. In the worst stretches of 2022, wholesale egg prices more than tripled compared to their pre-outbreak levels.

The speed is what catches people off guard. A buyer who was paying $1.20 a dozen on Monday might be looking at $1.80 by Friday. And because most suppliers pass through pricing based on Urner Barry, there is no hiding from it. Your cost of goods just changed, and you have to adjust your menu pricing, your retail pricing, or your margins accordingly.

Why the Tri-State Feels It Acutely

The Tri-State area does not produce many eggs relative to what it consumes. We are a demand center, not a production center. Most of the eggs flowing into NJ, NY, and CT come from farms in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, and the Midwest. When HPAI hits those regions, the impact on our supply is direct and immediate.

On top of that, the Tri-State has one of the most competitive foodservice and retail markets in the country. Restaurants, bakeries, delis, and grocery stores are all fighting for the same supply during a shortage. In a market this dense, even a modest supply disruption creates real problems for buyers who are not positioned with a reliable supplier.

What Buyers Can Do

You cannot control when bird flu hits or how severe it will be. But you can control how prepared you are. Here are the moves that make the biggest difference:

Diversify your sizes. During a shortage, large eggs are the first to get tight because everyone wants them. If your recipes can flex to medium or extra-large, you give yourself more options when supply gets squeezed. Talk to your kitchen team about which items can accommodate a size shift.

Lock in pricing when it is low. If your supplier offers contract pricing or forward pricing, take advantage of it during stable periods. The time to lock in a good rate is when nobody is worried about supply, not after the headlines start.

Stay in touch with your supplier. This is the most important one. A good supplier will give you early warnings when they see the market shifting. They will tell you what is happening with supply before you read about it in the news. But that only works if you have a real relationship, not just an account number.

Our Track Record Through Outbreaks

We have been through the 2015 outbreak, the 2022 outbreak, and everything in between. Through all of them, we kept our customers supplied. Were there tight weeks? Absolutely. Were there price increases we could not avoid? Yes. But we did not cut and run on anyone. We did not prioritize new accounts over existing ones. And we did not stop answering the phone.

That is the difference between a supplier who is in it for the long haul and one who disappears when things get difficult. When the next outbreak hits, and it will eventually, we will be here doing the same thing we have always done: getting eggs to the businesses that need them, every single day.

If you want a supplier who has been tested by real disruptions and come through the other side, give us a call at (201) 609-9986. We will talk you through how we handle it.